15 October 15:30-17:00 CEST

The Future of the Amazon: Deforestation, Climate, and Tipping Points

The Amazon basin is home to tens of millions people, is one of the most biodiverse places on Earth and is a critical ecosystem that helps regulate our climate. It is also a potential climate tipping points. 

This webinar will explore the latest science on how deforestation in the Amazon can drive it toward irreversible changes, climate impacts, and the metrics that signal when the area may be approaching a critical shift from rainforest to savannah.

Join AIMES, the Earth Commission, Future Earth, and the WCRP’s Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity for a webinar exploring the latest scientific insights on this unique and crucial ecosystem and the threats it faces. 

Agenda

  • Lucas Ferreira Correa (LMU Munich): Amazon deforestation and contributing to tipping
  • Julia Pongratz (LMU Munich): Land-use vs climate change impacts on Amazon tree cover
  • Bernardo Flores (UFSC): Current state of the Amazon and key tipping point metrics
  • Followed by a moderated discussion by Lana Blaschke (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

A recording of the webinar will be provided afterwards.

Back to series overview.

Speakers

Lucas Ferreira Correa
LMU Munich

Lucas Ferreira Correa is a meteorologist and climate scientist by training, holding a bachelor's degree in meteorology from the Federal University of Pará and a master's degree in meteorology from the University of São Paulo, both in Brazil, as well as a PhD in atmospheric sciences from ETH Zurich in Switzerland. 

His expertise and main research interests include atmospheric aerosols and radiative processes at the global scale, and meteorological and climate dynamics with a focus on South America. As of 2024, he works as a postdoctoral researcher at LMU Munich, part of the EU Horizon project ClimTip, co-leading the scientific work of the group that aims to improve the understanding about the tipping point characteristics of the Amazon rainforest.

Read more

Julia Pongratz
LMU Munich

Read more

Bernardo Flores
Federal University of Santa Catarina

Bernardo currently has a research collaboration at the University of Santiago de Compostela (Spain), works as a consultant for the Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization (OTCA) and is an associate researcher of the Juruá Institute, Brazil. He is also a member of the Science Panel for the Amazon (SPA). 

Bernardo has a Double Degree PhD in Ecology between Wageningen University (the Netherlands) and the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. His research applies the theory of complex dynamical systems to real-life social-ecological systems. Most of his work was dedicated to investigating the resilience of the Amazon forest system.

Read more

Lana Blaschke
(Moderator) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Lana Blaschke is a doctoral researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the Technical University of Munich. She investigates and monitors the stability of tropical forests under climate change. In the field of tipping point research, she uses remote sensing as a key source of spatiotemporal data. From these data sets, resilience estimators based on dynamical systems theory can be calculated and applied to assess changes in ecosystem resilience.

Her work focuses on enhancing the robustness of these resilience estimations through two main approaches: first, by using spatial resilience estimators that leverage the dimensionality of the data, and second, by exploring optimal combinations of data sets and resilience estimators.

Read more

All you need to know

This event is part of a series of online discussions aims to advance the knowledge about tipping elements, irreversibility, and abrupt changes in the Earth system. It supports efforts to increase consistency in treatment of tipping elements in the scientific community, develop a research agenda, and design joint experiments and ideas for a Tipping Element Model Intercomparison Project (TipMip).

This discussion series is a joint activity of the Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES) global research project of Future Earth, the Earth Commission Working Group 1 Earth and Human Systems Intercomparison Modelling Project (EHSMIP) under the Global Commons Alliance and the Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity of World Climate Research Program (WCRP).

Organized by

Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES)

The Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES) project is an international network of Earth system scientists and scholars that seek to develop innovative, interdisciplinary ways to understand the complexity of the natural world and its interactions with human activities. AIMES is a global research project of Future Earth.

Future Earth

Future Earth is a global network of scientists, researchers, and innovators collaborating for a more sustainable planet. Future Earth initiates and supports international collaboration between researchers and stakeholders to identify and generate the integrated knowledge needed for successful transformations towards societies that provide good and fair lives for all within a stable and resilient Earth system. Future Earth is the host of the Earth Commission.

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)is an international research institute that advances systems analysis and applies its research methods to identify policy solutions to reduce human footprints, enhance the resilience of natural and socioeconomic systems, and help achieve the sustainable development goals.

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) is advancing the frontier of integrated research for global sustainability, and for a safe and just climate future. A member of the Leibniz Association, the institute is based in Potsdam, Brandenburg and connected with the global scientific community. Drawing on excellent research, PIK provides relevant scientific advice for policy decision-making. The institute’s international staff of about 400 is led by a committed interdisciplinary team of Directors.

University of Exeter, Global Systems Institute

The Global Systems Institute (GSI) is thought-leading in understanding global changes, solving global challenges and helping create a flourishing future world together, through transformative research, education and impact. GSI's aim is to work with others to secure a flourishing future for humanity as an integral part of a life-sustaining Earth system. GSI's aim to be a ‘go to’ place for global change researchers from around the world, bringing them together with industry, policymakers, students and other stakeholders to tackle shared problems, and acting as a catalyst that enables translation of this research into applications that deliver tangible and sustainable social and ecological benefit.

WCRP Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity.

The Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity is an exploration of the routes to “safe landing” spaces for human and natural systems. It will explore future pathways that avoid dangerous climate change while at the same time contributing to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including those of climate action, zero hunger, clean water and sanitation, good health and well-being, affordable and clean energy, and healthy ecosystems above and below water. The relevant time scale is multi-decadal to millennial.