26 January 15:00-16:30 CET

A look at risks and opportunities

Compiled by 160 scientists from 23 countries and 87 institutions, the Global Tipping Points Report 2025 synthesizes the latest research on critical Earth system thresholds. 

It assesses how close key natural systems, like ocean currents, glaciers and rainforests, are to irreversible change and the risks of overshooting temperature boundaries. One key finding from this year's report was how warm-water coral reefs are already reaching a dangerous tipping point and heading toward long-term decline.

The report also highlights governance challenges and opportunities to trigger transformative positive tipping points.

This webinar will focus on the report and feature leading researchers and authors from it to unpack its insights on topics like coral reefs, governance strategies, and positive tipping points that can make a difference.

Join AIMES, the Earth Commission, Future Earth, and the WCRP’s Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity for a discussion on tipping points and on how science can guide urgent action toward a safe and sustainable future.

Cover photo: The Ocean Agency / Ocean Image Bank

Agenda

  • Tim Lenton (University of Exeter): An overview of the Global Tipping Points Report 2025
  • Nico Wunderling (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research): Implications of Overshooting 1.5°C for Earth System Tipping Points
  • Simon Willcock (Bangor University): Governance of Earth system tipping points
  • Melanie McField (Healthy Reefs for Healthy People): A case study on coral reefs
  • Tom Powell (University of Exeter): Positive tipping points
  • Followed by a moderated discussion

The webinar will be recorded and shared once it is ready. 

Back to series overview.

Speakers

Tim Lenton
University of Exeter

Professor Tim Lenton is the founding Director of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter and Chair in Climate Change and Earth System Science. He has more than 25 years research experience, focused on modelling of the biosphere, climate, biogeochemical cycles, and associated tipping points. 

Tim is renowned for his work identifying climate tipping points, which informed the setting of the 1.5C climate target, associated net zero targets, and nationally determined contributions.

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Nico Wunderling
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Nico Wunderling is a Professor for Computational Earth System Sciences at the Center for Critical Computational Studies (C³S) at Goethe University Frankfurt in cooperation with the Senckenberg Research Institute in Frankfurt am Main. He is also a scientist in the Earth Resilience Science Unit at PIK. 

His research focuses on interacting tipping elements in the Earth system, ranging from elements in the physical climate system to global ecosystems with a focus on the Amazon rainforest.

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Simon Willcock
Bangor University

Simomn Willcock is a professor of sustainability at Bangor University, and a spatial ecologist at UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology. His  projects focus on the interaction between people and nature, often using innovative methods. 

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Tom Powell
University of Exeter


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Melanie McField
Healthy Reefs for Healthy People

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All you need to know

This event is part of a series of online discussions aims to advance the knowledge about tipping elements, irreversibility, and abrupt changes in the Earth system. It supports efforts to increase consistency in treatment of tipping elements in the scientific community, develop a research agenda, and design joint experiments and ideas for a Tipping Element Model Intercomparison Project (TipMip).

This discussion series is a joint activity of the Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES) global research project of Future Earth, the Earth Commission Working Group 1 Earth and Human Systems Intercomparison Modelling Project (EHSMIP) under the Global Commons Alliance and the Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity of World Climate Research Program (WCRP).

Organized by

Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES)

The Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES) project is an international network of Earth system scientists and scholars that seek to develop innovative, interdisciplinary ways to understand the complexity of the natural world and its interactions with human activities. AIMES is a global research project of Future Earth.

Future Earth

Future Earth is a global network of scientists, researchers, and innovators collaborating for a more sustainable planet. Future Earth initiates and supports international collaboration between researchers and stakeholders to identify and generate the integrated knowledge needed for successful transformations towards societies that provide good and fair lives for all within a stable and resilient Earth system. Future Earth is the host of the Earth Commission.

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)is an international research institute that advances systems analysis and applies its research methods to identify policy solutions to reduce human footprints, enhance the resilience of natural and socioeconomic systems, and help achieve the sustainable development goals.

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) is advancing the frontier of integrated research for global sustainability, and for a safe and just climate future. A member of the Leibniz Association, the institute is based in Potsdam, Brandenburg and connected with the global scientific community. Drawing on excellent research, PIK provides relevant scientific advice for policy decision-making. The institute’s international staff of about 400 is led by a committed interdisciplinary team of Directors.

University of Exeter, Global Systems Institute

The Global Systems Institute (GSI) is thought-leading in understanding global changes, solving global challenges and helping create a flourishing future world together, through transformative research, education and impact. GSI's aim is to work with others to secure a flourishing future for humanity as an integral part of a life-sustaining Earth system. GSI's aim to be a ‘go to’ place for global change researchers from around the world, bringing them together with industry, policymakers, students and other stakeholders to tackle shared problems, and acting as a catalyst that enables translation of this research into applications that deliver tangible and sustainable social and ecological benefit.

WCRP Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity.

The Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity is an exploration of the routes to “safe landing” spaces for human and natural systems. It will explore future pathways that avoid dangerous climate change while at the same time contributing to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including those of climate action, zero hunger, clean water and sanitation, good health and well-being, affordable and clean energy, and healthy ecosystems above and below water. The relevant time scale is multi-decadal to millennial.