9 September 16:00-17:30 CEST

TIPMIP and tipping in CMIP

What can climate models tell us about tipping points?

Climate tipping points could trigger abrupt and potentially hard-to-reverse changes in parts of the Earth system. But how can scientists investigate these processes using climate models, and how confident can we be in the results?

This webinar will introduce the Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP), an international effort to coordinate modelling experiments on tipping points, and examine how it connects to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), an international climate modelling project.

Speakers will share recent insights and experiences from climate modelling and discuss scientific challenges and how modelling can support a clearer understanding of tipping point risks.

Agenda

  • Ricarda Winkelmann (Max Planck Institute of Geoanthropology): talk TBA 
  • Colin Jones (University of Leeds): Earth system modelling within TIPMIP: Experiment protocol and first multi-model results
  • Bette Otto-Bliesner (National Center for Atmospheric Research): Storylines of Earth System Tipping Point Risks at 2°C Global Warming: The TIPMIP-WhatIf Project
  • Followed by a moderated discussion with Lina Teckentrup (Barcelona Supercomputing Center)

Back to series overview.

A recording of the webinar will be available afterwards.

Speakers

Ricarda Winkelmann
Max Planck Institute of Geoanthropology

Ricarda Winkelmann is founding director of the Max Planck Institute of Geoanthropology, co-lead of the Earth Resilience Science Unit at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, and professor of climate system analysis at the University of Potsdam, where she researches ice-sheet dynamics, climate tipping points and the resilience of the Earth system. She is also a member of the Earth Commission and initiated the Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP).

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Colin Jones
University of Leeds

Colin heads the UK Earth system modelling team. He is a senior scientist in the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) and Professor in the School of Earth and Environment at the University of Leeds. In his role as head of the UK Earth system modelling, he is based at the UK Met Office in Exeter, where the bulk of the UKESM core development team are located. He leads the UKESM contribution to CMIP7 and is a member of the TIPMIP ESM steering group.

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Bette Otto-Bliesner
National Center for Atmospheric Research

Bette Otto-Bliesner is a Senior Scientist at the NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado and serves as head of NCAR's Paleoclimate Modeling Program. She is a nationally and internationally recognized expert in using computer-based models of Earth's climate system to investigate past climate change and climate variability across a wide range of time and space scales to better understand future climate change and potential tipping points.


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Lina Teckentrup
Barcelona Supercomputing Center

Lina Teckentrup is a researcher at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center. Her main research interest focuses on the terrestrial carbon cycle and the impacts of global change on it, including disturbances such as fire and anthropogenic forcings, and how these might affect the resilience of vegetation. She recently joined the TIPMIP-BIO domain leads team.

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All you need to know

This event is part of a series of online discussions aims to advance the knowledge about tipping elements, irreversibility, and abrupt changes in the Earth system. It supports efforts to increase consistency in treatment of tipping elements in the scientific community and develop a research agenda.

This discussion series is a joint activity of the Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES) global research project of Future Earth, the Earth Commission, which is hosted by Future Earth and the Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity of World Climate Research Program (WCRP).

Organized by

Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES)

The Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES) project is an international network of Earth system scientists and scholars that seek to develop innovative, interdisciplinary ways to understand the complexity of the natural world and its interactions with human activities. AIMES is a global research project of Future Earth.

Future Earth

Future Earth is a global network of scientists, researchers, and innovators collaborating for a more sustainable planet. Future Earth initiates and supports international collaboration between researchers and stakeholders to identify and generate the integrated knowledge needed for successful transformations towards societies that provide good and fair lives for all within a stable and resilient Earth system. Future Earth is the host of the Earth Commission.

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)is an international research institute that advances systems analysis and applies its research methods to identify policy solutions to reduce human footprints, enhance the resilience of natural and socioeconomic systems, and help achieve the sustainable development goals.

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) is advancing the frontier of integrated research for global sustainability, and for a safe and just climate future. A member of the Leibniz Association, the institute is based in Potsdam, Brandenburg and connected with the global scientific community. Drawing on excellent research, PIK provides relevant scientific advice for policy decision-making. The institute’s international staff of about 400 is led by a committed interdisciplinary team of Directors.

University of Exeter, Global Systems Institute

The Global Systems Institute (GSI) is thought-leading in understanding global changes, solving global challenges and helping create a flourishing future world together, through transformative research, education and impact. GSI's aim is to work with others to secure a flourishing future for humanity as an integral part of a life-sustaining Earth system. GSI's aim to be a ‘go to’ place for global change researchers from around the world, bringing them together with industry, policymakers, students and other stakeholders to tackle shared problems, and acting as a catalyst that enables translation of this research into applications that deliver tangible and sustainable social and ecological benefit.

WCRP Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity.

The Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity is an exploration of the routes to “safe landing” spaces for human and natural systems. It will explore future pathways that avoid dangerous climate change while at the same time contributing to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including those of climate action, zero hunger, clean water and sanitation, good health and well-being, affordable and clean energy, and healthy ecosystems above and below water. The relevant time scale is multi-decadal to millennial.